Dr. Ari Preston presented a poster on lightning cessation characteristics between severe and nonsevere storms using polarimetric radar data. Total lightning data for the storms are obtained from the Washington, D.C., Lightning Mapping Array (DCLMA). Storms are tracked using the Warning Decision Support System–Integrated Information (WDSS-II) software, producing time series of radar- and lightning-derived parameters. Trends in polarimetric radar parameters, such as graupel characteristics, at different temperature levels are compared between severe and nonsevere storms near the end of their lightning activity.
Seniors Sarah-Ellen Calise and John Drugan presented posters on their individual research projects. Sarah-Ellen is looking into improved forecasts of incoming solar radiation using machine learning and ensemble weather model output. Sarah-Ellen used output from a 15-member WRF ensemble combined with deep learning techniques to improve predictions of incoming solar radiation at surface stations in Vermont. Employing deep learning techniques on the ensemble output results in up to 30% improvement in forecast accuracy of incoming solar radiation over that of the equivalent raw ensemble forecasts. John superimposed polarimetric radar data and total lightning data from the Washington, D.C. Lightning Mapping Array (DCLMA) using the Warning Decision Support System-Integrated Information (WDSS-II) software to develop lightning cessation guidance algorithms. The goal of this project is to analyze the presence of graupel at different temperature levels in the mixed phase region of a storm (-20 to 0C) to determine a correspondence to the last detected lightning flash.
We hosted an alumni gathering on Tuesday evening. This was a great time for networking and catching up with many atmospheric sciences alumni!
Dr. Jay Shafer presented a talk on Predicting Wet Snow Icing Risks on the Grid Edge. He highlighted a successful research-to-operations effort to improve the prediction of power outages caused by wet snow icing. Wet snow icing is poorly understood, with no existing electric distribution engineering standards for wet snow loading, and no widely accepted meteorological standards to identify conditions when wet snow icing occurs. This work presented a method to identify wet snow icing potential using surface wet bulb temperature, in addition to an outage prediction method.
Dr. Janel Hanrahan facilitated a Town Hall Meeting with titled “Getting creative with climate change outreach: promoting scientific engagement, improving science literacy, and building community.” Panelists were Atmospheric Sciences students (seated, from left to right): Jonathan Hutchinson, Maison DeJesus, Lillie Farrell, and Patrick Wickstrom. In this Town Hall session, student and faculty members of The Climate Consensus, an outreach group at Northern Vermont University-Lyndon, will share their experiences with community engagement on this important topic. They will discuss creative ways they have prompted discussion about climate change within the local community and important lessons learned.
Back at NVU-Lyndon, Dr. Jay Shafer finished installing a wireless Davis Instruments Vantage Pro2 Plus weather station next to our research-grade weather station. This new weather station will assist Northview Weather LLC in creating an intercomparison of solar radiation data between the research-grade Kipp and Zonen solar radiation sensors and the Davis solar radiation sensor. This is useful because our Lyndon Mesonet of weather stations around Vermont mostly uses the same Davis Vantage Pro2 Plus weather stations (which Northview Weather is using to create an incoming solar radiation climatology). We will also now be able to conduct comparisons among the Davis Instruments rain gauge, the research-grade Texas Electronics rain gauge, and the manual CoCoRaHS rain gauge. Jason Kaiser, the Atmospheric Sciences Data Systems Administrator, also completed a much-needed replacement of a projector in one of Atmospheric Sciences classrooms during the fall break.
In the paper, Dr. Hanrahan and Dr. Shafer discuss the importance of improved communication between experts and nonexperts for meaningful climate action to be realized. To achieve this, we expose all Atmospheric Sciences students, regardless of their career pathway, to the science of human-caused climate change. Then, the department encourages students to engage with nonexperts through public events, school visits, and a department-run website, TheClimateConsensus.com. As a result, we have observed a higher level of interest in climate change among students over the past few years. More students have demonstrated a heightened sense of responsibility to engage the public about this challenging topic, and some have expressed an interest in pursuing climate-change-related careers.
The department thanks Jason Kaiser, Ari Preston, David Siuta, George Loriot, and Dawn Kopacz for productive conversations and helpful feedback. We also thank the faculty and staff at NVU-Lyndon for their enthusiastic support of our efforts. We are appreciative of the work by student recipients of the recently-established Climate Courage Award and Scholarship, Jonathan Hutchinson, Andrew Westgate, and Francis Tarasiewicz, and the donors who made the Climate Courage Award and Scholarship possible, Carl Bayer and Sheila Reed. Finally, we thank all of the former and current Lyndon Atmospheric Sciences students who have demonstrated courage by speaking out about climate change science, especially Arianna Varuolo-Clarke and Kayla St. Germain, who prompted the creation of the Climate Consensus Group in 2014.
Upward Bound and BREE students recently visited the Northern Vermont University-Lyndon Department of Atmospheric Sciences and had the opportunity to launch weather balloons! Students in both of these groups are interested in STEM (Science, Technology, Education, and Mathematics) fields.
About Weather Balloons
Every 12 hours, hundreds of people in places around the world launch huge, white balloons into the sky. The balloons float upward, each tethered to a box of instruments that collects data about the temperature, humidity, and winds in the atmosphere. These are weather balloons. The boxes of instruments are called radiosondes. The data that radiosondes collect is used in weather models to improve weather forecasts. The Department of Atmospheric Sciences at NVU-Lyndon launches weather balloons to gather data during hazardous weather situations (for example, severe thunderstorms, freezing rain, etc.). This data is also used in several Atmospheric Sciences courses. We also welcome the opportunity to launch weather balloons for visitors, like the Upward Bound and BREE students.
The Upward Bound program is a national college-preparation program that offers free educational, cultural, and social activities for eligible high school students from low- or modest-income families who will be the first in their family to attend college. The Upward Bound students got a chance to launch a weather balloon. These students are specifically interested in STEM fields and/or attending Northern Vermont University. A couple of students said that Atmospheric Sciences especially interested them.
Atmospheric Sciences student and NVU-Lyndon Admissions Student Office Professional Peter Kvietkauskas led a tour of the NVU-Lyndon campus, including stopping by the News7 studio. Dr. Hanrahan and Dr. Preston then talked with the students about the Climate Change Science and Atmospheric Sciences degrees, as well as describing experiential learning opportunities and storm observation field experience that Atmospheric Sciences students have.
Three undergraduate students, Ann Marie Matheny from Indiana University Bloomington, Connor Zwonik from the University of Vermont, and Giorgio Sarro from the University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee, recently visited NVU-Lyndon and had a chance to see what goes on in the Department of Atmospheric Sciences. This included launching a weather balloon. As the weather balloon rose, they also discussed the weather data from the radiosonde. These students are working with faculty and graduate students on the transdisciplinary BREE (Lake Champlain Basin Resilience to Extreme Events) research program. These three students are summer interns through the Vermont EPSCoR (Established Program to Stimulate Competitive Research) Center for Workforce Development and Diversity, which works to cultivate and prepare students in science, technology, engineering and math (STEM) fields.
Storm Forecasting and Observation Program Overview
Dr. Preston and four Northern Vermont University-Lyndon Atmospheric Sciences students participated in the SUNY Oswego Storm Forecasting and Observation Program earlier this summer (May 27-June 15). This program is designed for students to apply concepts from the classroom to the forecasting and observation of thunderstorms. The first two weeks were spent in the field, forecasting severe weather and observing storm structure. This involved launching weather balloons to collect data about the environment, as well as using programs like RadarScope and Baron Mobile Threat Net® to examine radar data and track storms. For the last week of the program, students completed a research project related to their storm observations. Some of the research projects this year used GR2Analyst, IDV, SHARPpy, and BUFKIT for analysis.
Select any image below to enlarge it to full-size.
During the 2019 Storm Forecasting and Observation Program, students saw three visible tornadoes (and one rain-wrapped), over a dozen wall clouds, dust devils, 0.25-inch hail, mammatus clouds, cloud iridescence, and incredible lightning activity. Students traveled through 10 different states (see trip log below), including Pennsylvania, Ohio, Indiana, Illinois, Missouri, Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, New Mexico, and Colorado.
During the “down” days, students got to visit the Big Well Museum in Greensburg, KS, as well as the Twister Museum in Wakita, OK. They also got to tour the National Weather Center in Norman, OK, which houses the Storm Prediction Center (SPC). Bill Bunting, Chief of Forecast Operations at the SPC, talked about the Storm Prediction Center right outside of the SPC’s forecast room.
Overall, 13 students participated in the Storm Forecasting and Observation program. This required two separate vans with ham radio communication (like in the movie Twister). On a typical “chase” day, the forecast team would lead a weather briefing around 8:00 am. The vans would then drive 5-6 hours (on average) to the target area. This would get them to their destination by 3:00 pm, which provided enough time to launch a weather balloon before the main period of thunderstorm development at 5:00 pm. Then, the students would observe the severe storm(s) for the next several hours before losing daylight. After sunset, faculty and students would decide where to stay that night to put them in the best position to chase again the next day. With this in mind, it usually meant driving late into the night.
Trip Log Summary
observed multiple wall clouds from low-precipitation supercells on the first travel day of the Storm Forecasting and Observation Program
launched a weather balloon; chased tornadic supercells near Nebraska
observed a well-defined wall cloud at 20Z; too dangerous to chase tornado near Fort Worth, TX; observed incredible lightning activity
launched weather balloon at 19Z; chased in the southern tip of Texas (near Big Bend National Park). Had to stop chasing due to the poor road network and in order to avoid hail damage to vehicles.
launched weather balloon at 14Z; chased a cell rotating anticyclonically and saw a few wall clouds with it. Great visual of hail core with “greenish” tint; observed incredible lightning activity
observed several dust devels, followed by a rain-wrapped cell near Dumas with rotation and multiple wall clouds; squall line developed with distinctive shelf cloud; observed straight-line winds and pea-sized hail from the inside of a gas station
target cell had large hail core and good rotation for several hours; all of a sudden, two additional cells popped up behind vans; caught in 0.25-inch hail (pea-sized); one of the storms produced beautiful iridescence around the anvils
down day; dinner at The Big Texan Steak Ranch
down day; models overproduced convection, therefore decided not to chase and instead visited the Big Well Museum in Greensburg, KS to learn about the EF5 tornado that devastated the area in May 2007
down day; visited the Twister Museum and saw the Wakita water tower featured in the Twister movie
down day; saw tornado damage (e.g. torn off signs, roofs, and damage to cars) from EF3 tornado that recently devasted the El Reno area
This was the most exciting day of the Storm Forecasting and Observation trip! The group observed two landspout tornadoes in Kanorado, KS at 20Z. Each lasted 5-10 minutes and occurred one after the other. Two condensation funnels were both visible for a short period as one dissipated and a new one formed. Following this, the group observed three supercells with well-defined hook echoes near Denver. These storms were associated with breathtaking mammatus clouds. At this point, the third tornado of the day briefly formed (occurring for about 10 seconds) in the southern-most supercell. Afterwards, some of the students spotted a brief rain-wrapped tornado in the middle supercell.
two travel days back to SUNY Oswego campus
work on research projects
Questions & Answers About the Storm Forecasting and Observation Program
What was the most enjoyable part of the trip?
This whole trip was an unbelievable experience, but if I had to pick what I enjoyed the most it would clearly have to be the storms. Before coming out, I had never seen anything compared to what we saw in the plains. Being able to see an entire supercell and admire its structure and watch as it tries to produce a tornado is something special that I don’t think I’ll ever experience again.
I chose to chase this summer because severe weather has been a dream of mine since I was five years old. I remember sitting through a particularly bad thunderstorm and hearing the rain approach my porch. It was torrential rain with severe lightning and booming thunder. Being able to finally chase this dream has been one of the most gratifying experiences I’ve ever had and I am so grateful that I was able to do this. Between the people I’ve met, the memories I’ve made, and the weather I’ve seen, this has been one of the most exhilarating things I’ve ever been able to do.
I now know how to analyze data to figure out where severe weather is likely to occur. This is very important to know as an aspiring meteorologist so I will be able to share my knowledge with the public. I have seen a lot of clouds in textbooks and pictures, but seeing mammatus clouds and wall clouds in person are so much different; it is amazing. Although I want to broadcast the weather, I love learning about severe weather. I have only completed one year of college so I am glad that I decided to do this program because there are quite a few people here who really know what they are doing and are doing a great job explaining things to me.
It is something that I’ve always wanted to do. I remember one of the small thunderstorms with my dad in Maine just so I could hear thunder. I grew up watching Tornado Hunters and I was absolutely obsessed. Twister is also my favorite movie so storm chasing just felt like something I needed to do.
Bobby Saba, Canton, TX Storms Bobby analyzed two storms that moved through Canton, TX on 29 May 2019. He was looking to find common radar signatures between storms producing multiple tornadoes.
Camryn Kruger, Cloud Iridescence Camryn examined the colorful iridescence that occurred around the anvils of supercells in New Mexico on 2 June 2019. Specifically, she looked for signatures of iridescence in radar and satellite fields.
Catie McNeil, High Instability/Low Shear Tornadoes
Catie studied common characteristics that produced tornadoes in high instability (i.e. Convective Available Potential Energy, CAPE), low vertical wind shear environments. Specifically, she compared the environment for the Jarrell, TX tornado (CAPE greater than 8000 J/kg) on 27 May 1997 to the 9 June 2019 tornado near Fort Worth, TX.
Maddie Degroot, Mysterious Mammatus
Maddie examined the stunning mammatus clouds associated with the three supercells near Denver, CO on 8 June 2019. This study showed the difficulty in identifying mammatus clouds using the standard WSR-88D S-Band radar.
The American Meteorological Society defines the Coriolis effect as “an apparent force, relative to the earth’s surface, that causes deflection of moving objects to the right in the Northern Hemisphere and to the left in the Southern Hemisphere due to the earth’s rotation.”
Every couple of weeks, students in Dr. Hanrahan’s Atmospheric Dynamics class present important concepts to their peers during Content Reviews. For one Content Review, Jonathan Hutchinson and Alex DaSilva took the group out to the Weather Deck to help the class better understand the Coriolis effect.
In this Coriolis effect demonstration, Alex is at the center of rotation and Jonathan is throwing a ball toward him. When they rotate counterclockwise (cyclonically) as viewed from above, like in the Northern Hemisphere, the ball appears to be deflected to the right. When they rotate clockwise (anticyclonically) as viewed from above, like in the Southern Hemisphere, the ball appears to be deflected to the left.
This is an important concept for atmospheric sciences students in order for them to understand and predict atmospheric motion. For example, the Coriolis effect is what causes storm systems like hurricanes and nor’easters to spin counterclockwise in the Northern Hemisphere.
During the 2019 Commencement weekend, Nothern Vermont University-Lyndon Atmospheric Sciences (ATM) held a capstone symposium so that that seniors could show family and friends what they’ve been up to for the past year. These students were the first to take a newly revamped two-semester senior capstone course, which allowed them to synthesize and apply knowledge and skills gained throughout the Atmospheric Sciences curriculum.
Following guidance from the latest American Meteorological Society Information Statement on Bachelor’s Degrees in Atmospheric Sciences, each Senior Capstone student completed a self-identified project, preferably relevant to their career goal and interests. This provided a tangible manifestation of each students’ ability to apply the knowledge they had gained from their academic work.
Students then created conference-style posters to communicate their results. These posters were on display during the final exam week as well as the day before the NVU-Lyndon Commencement at the senior capstone symposium.
Experiential Learning: A Workshop for Undergraduate
Atmospheric Science Students
How Can We Improve Real-Time Weather Warnings?
Impacts of Climate Change on Winter Storms in Southern
Meteorological Drivers of Rapid Wildfire Growth in
Alaska’s Boreal Forest
Arctic Sea Ice Thickness Subseasonal Predictability: Comparing CFSv2 Operational Forecasts with CryoSat-2/SMOS Satellite Data
Common Signatures Among Thundersnow Storms
A More Effective Approach to Severe Weather Coverage
on Social Media in the Boston Area
An Analysis of Climate Change Communication through
Broadcast Media: Examining Average Minimum Nighttime Temperatures
Relationship Between Total Lightning Activity and
Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Intensity
Lightning Network Integration
The Effect of Warming Sea-Surface Temperatures on
Topical Cyclone Intensity
An Improved Wind-Related Power Outage Model
Finding a Methodology to Teach Climate Change That Best Engages Students with Different Learning Styles
The 44th Northeastern Storm Conference was held in Saratoga Springs, NY, on March 8-10, 2019. The Northeastern Storm Conference is an excellent opportunity for students, professors, scientists, and other professionals to share and learn about the latest weather and climate research.
This year’s Friday evening speaker was Keith Carson, ’05.
NVU-Lyndon Atmospheric Sciences students and faculty attended the American Geophysical Union (AGU) Fall Meeting this week in Washington, D.C. This year’s centennial event attracted more than 27,000 geoscientists from around the world. In addition to learning about cutting-edge geoscience research from leading experts, the Lyndon ATM group authored five accepted abstracts.
On Monday, Dr. Hanrahan presented a poster on recent curricular changes to the Atmospheric Sciences program. She and her coauthor, Dr. Shafer, discussed the integration of climate change in the core Atmospheric Sciences curriculum and student outreach activities through The Climate Consensus. On the same day, Dr. Siuta presented on work he completed with Dr.Shafer and current student, Francis Tarasiewicz, that evaluates model forecasts of ice and wet snow events in the northeastern U.S.
On Tuesday, students Jessica Langlois and Lauren Cornell presented their results from a summer internship with Dr. Hanrahan, on the impact of Great Lakes’ water temperature increases on simulated downwind precipitation. This work was completed in collaboration with researchers at Dartmouth College and the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). On Wednesday, student Celia Fisher presented on meteorological drivers of rapid wildfire growth in Alaska’s Boreal Forest. This work was completed during a summer internship at the National Weather Service in Alaska as part of her her Hollings Undergraduate Scholarship experience.
On Friday, Dr. Preston discussed simulations of chemical transport by Typhoon Mireille, work which was completed in collaboration with researchers at Florida State University and NCAR.
On Tuesday, we hosted a gathering for Atmospheric Sciences students and alumni. We enjoyed learning about alumni accomplishments and hearing you reminisce about your time at Lyndon!
Forecasts from Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models provide one of the primary tools meteorologists use to produce weather forecasts. Historically, running NWP models has required vast computing resources to complete weather forecasts in a timely fashion. Until recently, running such NWP simulations quickly at a high enough resolution to capture mesoscale features (such as tight temperature gradients, mountain/valley flows, and mesoscale precipitation banding features within midlatitude cyclones) required the purchase of a supercomputing cluster. However, the rise of cloud computing technologies has removed that barrier. Now, companies like Google, Amazon, and Microsoft provide the required computing resources at a per use cost to the public and academic communities.
This fall, Dr. Siuta’s junior-level Analysis and Forecasting 1 class won a Google Cloud for Education grant, which allowed them to use Google’s Cloud Platform to run their own NWP model simulations using the state-of-the-art Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Dr. Siuta had previously co-authored an article on the Viability of Cloud Computing for Real-Time Numerical Weather Prediction in the journal Weather and Forecasting.
Students learned the basic components of a NWP model, weather model limitations, and how adjusting model physics can lead to different forecast outcomes through simulating a high-impact weather event of their choice. Students ran cases covering Superstorm Sandy (October 29-30, 2012), the February 8-10, 2013 nor’easter, the March 7-9, 2018 nor’easter, the March 1-3, 2018 nor’easter, the January 4-6, 2018 nor’easter, and the October 2017 New England wind storm. Unidata’s Integrated Data Viewer was used to visualize the WRF output.
The grant from Google was sufficient to cover the simultaneous use of 336 virtual computing cores, so that students could run each of these cases with model resolutions matching the standards of today’s national model centers — down to the 3-5 km scale over the entire northeastern US.
Key findings by the students are summarized below.
Acknowledgements: We thank the Google Cloud Platform for providing the funds through the GCP Education Grants program for our class.
Case Study 1: October 29-30, 2017 wind storm WRF model sea-level pressure (left panel) and wind speed (right panel) output for the 29-30 October 2017 wind storm. This case study was chosen by Alex DaSilva and Nick Ferrando-Boucher, who varied the WRF planetary boundary layer scheme to see the effect on the strength of the low-pressure center and magnitude of the wind speeds in Vermont. They found that a non-local-mixing boundary-layer scheme provided a better forecast than a local-mixing only boundary-layer scheme for the wind speeds observed at Northern Vermont University-Lyndon during the event.
Case Study 2: March 7-9, 2018 Nor’easter A comparison of WRF model forecast snow depth (using 10:1 ratio) to that of observations in southern New England for the 7-9 March 2018 Nor’easter (Quinn). This case study was run by Sarah-Ellen Calise and Lauren Cornell, who varied WRF cloud microphysics schemes to see the impact each scheme had on snowfall forecasts. D01 are forecasts for a 15-km outer nest while D02 are forecasts for a 5-km inner nest. Sarah-Ellen and Lauren found that in areas closer to the coast (e.g., Providence, RI), the microphysics scheme had a substantial impact on the location of the rain/snow line and overall snow amounts in the area.
Case Study 3: Superstorm Sandy (October 27-30, 2012) Jonathan Hutchinson, Taylor Leitch, and Lillie Farrell varied the planetary boundary layer schemes in the WRF model to see the impact on the development of Superstorm Sandy. Shown here is one of their WRF simulations predicting landfall on October 28 along the coast of New Jersey as Sandy is undergoing a transition from a tropical to extra-tropical system. The group found ~10-mb sea-level pressure difference between their runs at Atlantic City, NJ caused by differences in forecast track. Landfall varied between Sandy Hook and Cape May, NJ depending on the planetary boundary layer scheme that was used.
Case Study 4: February 8-10, 2013 Nor’easter Students John Drugan, Radek Przygodzki, and Alex Doone ran the February 2013 nor’easter, which resulted in heavy, wet snow and 700,000 people losing power in parts of New England. John, Radek, and Alex varied cloud microphysics scheme and determined that the microphysics choice had a distinct impact on the location of a mesoscale precipitation band forecast to occur near the eastern tip of Long Island. Depending on the scheme, this band shifted to the east or west, leading to the highest forecast storm totals shifter slightly towards (right panel) or away (left panel) from population centers.
Case Study 5: January 4-6, 2018 Nor’easter Kelsey Emery and Dan Carneiro simulated the January 2018 nor’easter because they were personally affected by the storm, which prevented them making it to the national American Meteorological Society meeting due to disrupted flights. The storm hammered southern New England with 1-2 feet of snow and winds gusting over 50 mph. Shown below are Dan and Kelsey’s WRF simulations of the low tracking off the Massachusetts coast.
Case Study 6: March 1-3, 2018 Nor’easter A comparison of model forecast soundings produced by varying the boundary layer choice during the March 1-3, 2018 nor’easter. This nor’easter left close to 2 million people without power in the northeastern US due to wet snow and high winds. The far right graphic shows the corresponding observed sounding at Albany, NY taken 0000 UTC 3 March 2018. Rosemary Webb and Sarah Sickles found that varying the boundary layer choice affected the ability of the model to depict the vertical profile of the atmosphere at Albany, NY.